Application of the Holt — Winters Model and the Exergetic Method for Predicting Safe Waste Management in the Russian Federation


The problem of waste management is acute in the Russian Federation. Not enough attention is paid to the systematic studies of their composition and properties. The purpose of the work is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of data on waste generated, to select models for predicting their mass, composition, and properties, to substantiate the feasibility of using exergetic analysis to assess safety and make informed decisions on the management of solid municipal waste management.

To predict the volume of waste generation, the following were used: an integrated autoregression model — a moving average and exponential smoothing models. The study of changes in the composition and properties of the municipal solid waste, the choice of technology and the assessment of safety in waste management were carried out using the exergetic method. Its advantages are determined by the possibility of conducting a comprehensive energy-ecological assessment and determining the fire hazard of waste and the processes of handling them.

The application of the Holt-Winters model for predicting the mass of the generated waste is substantiated. The analysis of changes in the morphological composition of waste, their distribution by types of economic activity is carried out. The values of chemical exergy of municipal solid waste are determined, and a forecast of its further growth is constructed. The dependences of chemical exergy on the heat of combustion of waste are found. It is determined that it is advisable to consider chemical exergy as a heat engineering characteristic and an indicator of fire and environmental hazard of waste. It is proved that the exergetic efficiency of the incineration process is higher than that of composting and burial. Transportation of garbage from the large cities by road and rail transport for subsequent disposal and recycling can be considered as a forced temporary measure during the development of the branch of industry and the formation of a waste management culture. 

For the application of the exergy method in the system for ensuring safety when handling solid municipal waste, a data mining system was developed. It is advisable to use the obtained results for the development of safety requirements for the management of production and consumption waste in the Russian Federation. 

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2021-11-34-40
Year: 2021
Issue num: November
Keywords : environmental safety fire safety prediction data analysis waste Holt — Winters model municipal solid waste exergetic method safe waste management heat of combustion waste transportation
  • Koroleva L.A.
    Koroleva L.A.
    , Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof., Deputy Head of the Department, Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
  • Svidzinskaya G.B.
    Svidzinskaya G.B.
    Cand. Sci. (Chem.), Assoc. Prof. Saint-Petersburg University of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
  • Khaydarov A.G.
    Khaydarov A.G.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Assoc. Prof. Saint-Petersburg State Technology Institute (Technical University), Saint-Petersburg, Russia
  • Ivakhnyuk G.K.
    Ivakhnyuk G.K.
    Dr. Sci. (Chem.), Prof., Head of the Department Saint-Petersburg State Technology Institute (Technical University), Saint-Petersburg, Russia