Assessment of the Main Gas Pipeline Strength Reliability Considering the Actual Regularities of the Distribution of the Pipe Wall Thickness


Calculation results adequacy of the reliability current level of gas pipelines linear sections is determined by the actual laws of distribution of the parameters that are significant for calculating reliability indicators based on the probabilistic models. The practice of performing such calculations for the trunk pipelines shows that the laws of distribution of excess internal pressure and temperature difference are specific and individual for each section of the linear part. One of the parameters influencing significantly random spectrum of stresses arising in the pipe wall due to external loads is the pipe wall thickness. Despite the random nature of this parameter, in the probabilistic models, on which the current industry regulatory documents are based, that determine the approach to assessment of the reliability of the linear part sections of the main gas pipelines, the pipe wall thickness is considered a deterministic value.

The results of studies of actual regularities of distribution of the pipe wall thickness are presented. The effect of this parameter random nature on the reliability indicators quantitative values is assessed. It is established that when assessing the strength reliability of the main gas pipeline linear sections, it is an unreasonable assumption to consider the thickness of the pipe wall as a deterministic value without taking into account the actual regularities of its distribution. It leads to the incorrect results when calculating reliability indicators. The probability of failure in this case is underestimated in relation to those values that are obtained considering the actual regularities and limits of change in the pipe wall thickness. Hence the probability of errors occurs when planning of the maintenance and repair of the linear part sections of the main gas pipeline.

The obtained results can become the basis for improving the methods of calculating reliability indicators, which will allow to consider the random nature of the pipe wall thickness as a significant indicator. This contributes to a more accurate risk assessment during operation of potentially hazardous extended objects such as the main gas pipelines.

  1. Filatov A.A., George M.S. Influence of the operating conditions of the gas pipeline on the indicators of its strength reliability. Nauka i tekhnika v gazovoy promyshlennosti = Science and technology in the gas industry. 2013. № 2 (54). pp. 75–82. (In Russ.).
  2. Golofast S.L. Effect of Statistical Straggling of the Yield Strength of 17G1S Pipe Steel Grade on Strength Reliability of the Main Gas Pipelines. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 2. pp. 42–47. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-2-42-47
  3. Filatov A.A., Novoselov V.V. Influence of pipe material strength properties on the probabilistic characteristics of safety factor in the operating conditions of gas pipeline. Izvestiya vysshikh uchebnykh zavedeniy. Neft i gaz = News of higher educational institutions. Oil and Gas. 2014. № 4. pp. 80–85. (In Russ.).
  4. Golofast S.L. Problems of Reliability Assessment for Linear Part of Trunk Pipelines. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2018. № 4. pp. 36–40. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-4-36-40
  5. STO Gazprom 2-2.3-184—2007. Methods for calculation and substantiation of the safety factor and the stability of the main gas pipelines at the stage of operation and maintenance. Available at: (accessed: February 10, 2020). (In Russ.).
  6. Golofast S.L. Monitoring of the Reliability of the Main Gas Pipeline Linear Sections During Various Periods of Operation. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 7. pp. 7–14. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-7-7-14
  7. Golofast S.L., Vladova A.Yu. Influence of Temperature Field Route of the Oil-trunk Pipeline on Linear Section Strength Reliability. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 11. pp. 24–33. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-11-24-33
  8. Surikov V.I. Geotechnical monitoring and safe management system for main oil pipelines laid in severe natural climatic conditions. Nauka i tehnologii truboprovodnogo transporta nefti i nefteproduktov = Oil & Oil Products Pipeline Transportation: Science & Technologies. 2016. № 2 (22). pp. 20–23. (In Russ.).
  9. GOST 1497—84. Metals. Tensile test methods. Available at: (accessed: February 10, 2020). (In Russ.).
  10. SNiP 2.05.06—85. Trunk pipelines. Moscow: FGUP TsPP, 2005. 60 p. (In Russ.).
  11. STO Gazprom 2-2.1-318—2009. Instructions for design of the pipelines with longitudinal deformation compensation. Available at: (accessed: February 10, 2020). (In Russ.).
  12. Maritz J.S. Distribution-free statistical methods. 2nd Ed. London: Chapman & Hall, 1995. 256 p.
  13. Simakhin V.A. Robust nonparametric estimates. Adaptive estimates of weighted maximum likelihood in the conditions of statistical a priori uncertainty. Saarbrucken: LAMBERT Academic Publishing GmbH&Co. KG, 2011. 292 p. (In Russ.).
  14. Golofast S.L. Assessment of the Strength Reliability of the Trunk Pipelines based on the Quantile Values of Safety Factor. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2018. № 7 (739). pp. 22–28. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-7-22-28
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-6-21-28
Year: 2020
Issue num: June
Keywords : wall thickness strength reliability failure probability main gas pipeline linear section reliability indicators
  • Golofast S.L.
    Golofast S.L.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof., OOO «Gazprom proektirovanie», Saint-Petersburg, Russia