Statistical indicators of the negative consequences of all the emergencies in Kuzbass, including those at the coal mining and coal processing enterprises in the region are considered in the article. The need in developing a new approach to planning preventive measures based on the predicted risks of emergencies occurrence is substantiated. Efficiency of preventive measures is assessed by the calculations and comparison of actual and predicted risks of emergency situations.
Functions are derived for changing the number of emergencies and their consequences, including for the coal enterprises over time. Theoretical foundations for calculating risks for the coal enterprises are given. Mathematical models are built concerning the changes in time of the risks of emergencies, injured and dead as the result of them employees of the coal industry enterprises in the territory of Kuzbass. Hazard assessment for the employees is based on the calculation of the risk occurrence of both emergencies and the negative consequences of them. Mathematical modeling of emergency situations and their consequences in the coal industry will allow to assess the relevance and efficiency of the implementation of targeted measures at the enterprises of industry on preventing the technogenic accidents. This will make it possible to more rationally allocate financial resources of enterprises to the activities aimed at preserving the employee life and health.
The article also shows practical development of the proposed methodology of preventive measures at the coal mining and coal processing enterprises.
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