Criteria for Tolerable Social Risk in case of Accidents at Hazardous Production Facilities


Annotation:

Establishing the criteria for a tolerable (acceptable) risk of people exposure in case of industrial accidents and technogenic events is one of the widely discussed problems in Russia and abroad. As the main indicator in the criteria used for this purpose, an individual risk is applied, in some cases, including for the population, and, also social risk, reflecting the possibility of major accidents.

According to paragraph 34 of Safety Guide «Methodological framework for conducting hazard analysis and risk assessment of accidents at hazardous production facilities», one of the indicators recommended for accident risk assessment is social risk. Social risk (or the risk of group of people exposure) is the dependence of the frequency of accident scenarios F in which suffered at a certain level at least N people from this number (N characterizes the social severity of the consequences (catastrophic) of the implementation of the totality of accident scenarios and is presented in the form corresponding to F/N curve).

Social risk is applied when declaring industrial safety of hazardous production facilities in accordance with paragraph 42 of RD-03-14—2005, «Procedure for presentation of industrial safety declaration of hazardous production facilities, and the list of information to be included in it».

Compliance with the criteria of tolerable social risk is one of the conditions when determining the blast resistance of buildings and structures at hazardous production facilities.

Based on the analysis of domestic and foreign regulatory and methodological documents, two approaches in establishing the criteria for tolerable social risk are proposed. The first approach is based on the «Dutch» criteria. The second approach is based on «British» criteria and takes into account the specifics of a particular object, its division into components, requirements for tolerable individual risk. The proposed criteria will allow to avoid the problem when at the site facilities with a high density of equipment location and a large number of personnel the social risk practically will be always unacceptable. The proposed approach does not underestimate the risk of accident and takes into account the stronger effect on the risk of accidents with an increased death toll.

References:
  1. Lisanov M.V. On technical regulation and acceptable risk criteria. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2004. № 5. pp. 11–14. (In Russ.).
  2. Degtyarev D.V., Pecherkin A.S. Methodology Problems of Social Risk Assessment. Use of Bernoulli Formula. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2012. № 11. pp. 50–53. (In Russ.).
  3. Grazhdankin A.I., Pecherkin A.S., Nikolaenko O.V. On the Establishment of the Tolerable Risk Levels of Accident for Assessment of Compensatory Measures Sufficiency in Substantiation of Safety of Hazardous Production Facility of Oil and Gas Complex. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2017. № 12. pp. 51–57. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2017-12-51-57
  4. Nikolaenko O.V., Chernoplekov A.N., Zaikin I.A., Kryukov A.S. Improvement of the Bases and Processes of Design, Construction and Operation of Oil and Gas Processing Facilities, Petrochemical and Gas Chemical Plants through the Changes in Industrial Safety Regulation. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2012. № 4. pp. 44–51. (In Russ.).
  5. Timofeev S.S., Khamidullina E.A., Drozdova T.I. Assessment of accidental risks at chemically hazardous facilities of the Irkutsk region. Vektor nauki TGU = Science Vector of Togliatti State University. 2013. № 3. pp. 273–275. (In Russ.).
  6. Borno O.I., Semenov A.Yu., Ilyushin D.B., Kvashnin D.G. Criteria for acceptable risk when declaring industrial safety and justifying safety of a hazardous production facility. Neftegazovoe delo = Oil and gas business. 2015. № 2. pp. 446–456. (In Russ.).
  7. Vrijiling J.K., van Hengel W., Houben R.J. A framework for risk evaluation. Journal of Hazardous materials. 1995. № 43. 245–261.
  8. Trbojevic V.M. Risk criteria in EU. Available at:  https://www.risk-support.co.uk/B26P2-Trbojevic-final.pdf (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  9. Societal Risk: Initial Briefing to the Societal Risk Technical Advisory Group (HSE RR703). Available at:  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/309135869_Societal_Risk_Initial_Briefing_to_the_Societal_Risk_Technical_Advisory_Group_HSE_RR703 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  10. PD 8010-1:2004. Pipeline systems. Steel pipelines on land — Guide to the application of pipeline risk assessment to proposed developments in the vicinity of major accident hazard pipelines containing flammables. Part 3. London: BSI Standards Limited, 2013. 52 p.
  11. Jongejan R.B., Jonkman S.N., Maaskant B. The potential use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 1): Basic principles. Available at:  https://edepot.wur.nl/139614 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  12. Maaskant B., Jonkman S.N., Jongejan R.B. The use of individual and societal risk criteria within the Dutch flood safety policy (part 2): estimation of the individual and societal risk for the dike rings in the Netherlands. Available at:  https://edepot.wur.nl/139617 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  13. Safety rules for hazardous production facilities of the underground gas storage facilities: Federal rules and regulations in the field of industrial safety. Ser. 08. Iss. 37. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2019. 32 p. (In Russ.).
  14. Safety rules for liquefied natural gas facilities: Federal rules and regulations in the field of industrial safety. Ser. 08. Iss. 41. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 36 p. (In Russ.).
  15. GOST R 22.10.02—2016. Safety in emergency situations. Emergency situations risk management. Acceptable risk of emergency situations. Available at:  http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200136698 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  16. GOST R 55059—2012. Safety in emergency situations. Emergency risk management. Terms and definitions. Available at:  http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200102321 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  17. Technical regulation on fire safety requirements (as amended on December 27, 2018). Available at:  http://docs.cntd.ru/document/902111644 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  18. STO Gazprom 2-2.3-400—2009. Risk analysis methodology for hazardous production facilities of gas producing enterprises of OAO Gazprom. Moscow: OOO «Gazprom ekspo», 2010. 369 p. (In Russ.).
  19. Methodological foundations for hazard analysis and risk assessment of accidents at hazardous production facilities: Safety guide. Ser. 27. Iss. 16. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 56 p. (In Russ.).
  20. RD-03-14—2005. Procedure for presentation of industrial safety declaration of hazardous production facilities and the list of information to be included in it.  Ser. 27. Iss. 4. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2018. 28 p. (In Russ.).
  21. Lisanov M.V., Zhukov I.S., Bazaliy R.V. Criteria for Buildings and Structures Blast Resistance at Hazardous Production Facilities. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2019. № 5. pp. 40–46. (In Russ.). DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-5-40-46
  22. RD 03-357—00. Guidelines for the preparation of industrial safety declaration of a hazardous production facility. Available at:  http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200029036 (accessed: February 22, 2020).
  23. General requirements for safety case of hazardous production facility: Federal rules and regulations in the field of industrial safety. Ser. 03. Iss. 73. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 16 p. (In Russ.).
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-5-79-86
Year: 2020
Issue num: May
Keywords : industrial safety requirements hazardous production facility risk analysis substantiation of safety accident explosion criteria industrial safety declaration tolerable risk social risk F/N curve loss of life
Authors:
  • Zhukov I.S.
    Zhukov I.S.
    Research Associate, ilzhukov@safety.ru Autonomous Noncommercial Organization «Industrial Risk Research Agency», Moscow, Russia
  • Lisanov M.V.
    Lisanov M.V.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), the Director of Risk Analysis Center STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Samuseva E.A.
    Samuseva E.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Research Assistant STC «Industrial Safety » CJSC, Moscow, Russia