Dynamic Model for Assessing the State of the Occupational Health and Safety Management System


Annotation:

Analytical approach to the assessment of the state of the occupational health and safety management system is considered based on the constant analysis of hazards and current risks, regular adjustment of the occupational health and safety management system depending on the decrease or increase in the assessment of its state.
In the presented model the Bayesian approach is used, in which on the basis of the apriori value of the complex indicator for assessing the state of the occupational health and safety management system the possible a posteriori change of this indicator is determined depending on the factors affecting its state (availability of the organizational documentation, observance of the labor rights of the employees, organization of training and instructing on occupational safety, accounting of incidents, assessment of the risk of injury and death of the personnel, etc.).
To obtain the posteriori assessment, only those indicators characterizing the state of the occupational health and safety management system are considered, the values of which have changed in the current year compared to the previous one. The method of maximizing the posterior probability density is used. 
The effectiveness of the occupational health and safety management system is assessed using the intervals of the Harrington function. The boundary values of this function corresponding to a good, satisfactory, and poor assessment of the effectiveness of the occupational health and safety management system are determined.
As an example, the calculation of the posteriori assessment of a complex indicator of the state of the occupational health and safety management for a fire protection unit is considered. It is shown, that as a result of implementing measures for labor protection the complex indicator for assessing the state of the occupational health and safety management system increases, the assessment of its effectiveness improves.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2021-6-28-33
Year: 2021
Issue num: June
Keywords : injury rate occupational safetу management system Bayesian method apriori probability likelihood function maximization of a posteriori density dynamic model
Authors:
  • Poroshin A.A.
    Poroshin A.A.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Head of the Scientific and Technical Center FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Bobrinev E.V.
    Bobrinev E.V.
    Cand. Sci. (Biol.), Lead Researcher FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Udavtsova E.Yu.
    Udavtsova E.Yu.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Senior Research Assistant, otdel_1_3@mail.ru FGBU VNIIPO EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia
  • Kondashov A.A.
    Kondashov A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Lead Researcher FGBU VNIIPO of EMERCOM of Russia, Balashikha, Russia