A Priori Assessment and Reduction of Risk of Hydraulic Structure Accident Based on Modeling


The results are presented concerning the study of break of the hydraulic structure dam and the destructive effect of the water storage pressure front on the objects that turned out to be on the way of its rapid spreading. The purpose of the study is to assess: the probability of the accident occurrence and the expected damage characterized by the manifestation of the cascade effect; contribution to these risk indicators of the prerequisites and the outcome of accident considered when modeling; substantiation of rational strategies and organizational and technical measures to reduce the corresponding risk. Topicality of the study is conditioned by both the catastrophic consequences of such accidents and the limited publications on a priori assessment of risk indicators and the ways to substantiate rational proposals for reducing the likelihood and damage from potential accidents. Proposed technology for the accident risk forecasting of the hydraulic structures includes the development of caused and effect models and their automated system (qualitative and quantitative) analysis, which sets it apart from the well-known works on this problematics. Developed illustrative graph-analytical model includes an incident tree and an event tree. This model considers about 50 significant factors and negative consequences, and its analysis allows to rank them on the degree of their influence on the indicators of the risk assessed. The measures proposed for its reduction concerned the countering of the most significant negative factors and were modeled by the barriers on the way of occurrence and destructive manifestation of the accident. At their selection the costs and effect of their possible implementation were also considered. To reduce the complexity of the quantitative assessment of the considered factors and the calculations for substantiating some of the recommendations became possible owing to the involvement of the unique Russian software package ARBITR.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2019-2-26-34
Year: 2019
Issue num: February
Keywords : cause-and-effect diagram incident probability expected damage прогноз и снижение риска system analysis and synthesis
  • Belov P.G.
    Belov P.G.
    Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof., safsec@mail.ru MAI (NIU), Moscow, Russia