P.G. Belov, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof., email@example.com MAI (NIU), Moscow, Russia
Generalized approach to forecsting risk of cascade technogenic accidents by modeling the process of their occurrence and undesirable development is considered in the article. As the most appropriate models for this the combined cause and effect diagram was used, which included the so-called fault tree and event tree describing the conditions for the initiation of occurrence of the initiating accident with release of flammable substance and its subsequent development with the domino effect. Proposed graphical models allow not only to consider and visually present all the essential factors, but also to subject them to the subsequent system (qualitative and quantitative) analysis for the objective of the a priori estimate of the cascade risk and to substantiate the proposals for its reduction.
Main stages of the relevant methodology and the methods for their practical implementation are specified, which are suitable for the forecast of the likelihood and average damage from incidents of the studied type at the early stages of the life cycle of hazardous production facilities, as well as for evaluating the efficiency of various strategies aimed at reducing these parameters risk. Search of the specific strategies is facilitated by modeling the conditions for the occurrence and destructive manifestation of cascade accidents in the form of the movement of some signal from the presuppositions of the fault tree to the final outcomes of the event tree that allow to present the corresponding constructive-technical and organizational-technological activities in total preventing safety barriers.
The advantage of the proposed technology is the possibility of synthesizing and predicting the effectiveness of four strategies aimed at: elimination of failures, errors and off-design external effects capable to lead to initiating accident with the release of a large amount of combustible substance; prevention of the formation of them the required causal chain; redistribution of the conditional probabilities of the cascade accident development in favor of the most favorable scenarios; mitigation of the severity of its most destructive outcomes through the intended accident rescue operations.
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