Assessment of the risk of accidents for the pipelines in the multi-line corridors is very relevant, especially in the event of a possible escalation of an accident from one line to another. Methodological approach for assessing the conditional probability of an escalation of an accident on the multi-line above-ground gas pipelines located in the Arctic and intended for supplying fuel to certain regions is considered in the article.
From the point of view of industrial safety, to describe the degree of danger of an accident during the operation of gas pipelines, the use of traditional risk indicators, such as individual, collective, and social risk, is not very informative, since the Arctic gas pipelines are laid in a sparsely populated area. Therefore, in this article it is proposed to use the conditional probability of an accident escalation, and, based on such an assessment, draw conclusions about the independence of gas supply along the individual lines.
The calculations are made concerning the escalation of an accident to adjacent lines during depressurization of a typical above-ground multi-line main gas pipeline. The hazard of abnormal avalanche-like depressurization of a gas pipeline during its oscillations under the influence of reactive forces from outflowing jets is considered separately. Dependence is given related to the conditional probability of an accident escalation on the distance between the lines in the case of an avalanche-like destruction of an above-ground gas pipeline on the equipped supports. The method is developed to consider the specifics of the recipient gas pipeline when simulating its destruction under the influence of thermal radiation.
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