The article deals with the issues of ensuring industrial safety of the objects of fuel and energy complex and hazardous production facilities in other sectors of the national economy. It is recommended to analyze the consequences of emergencies considering the importance of such criteria, as the emergency area, the amount of social damage, the amount of economic damage. At the stage of determining the importance of the above criteria, the study is carried out related to possible scenarios of an emergency development. The importance of the criteria is determined by using the methods of expert evaluations, which allow to use decision-making methods: the method of hierarchy analysis and the method of the displaced ideal. The likely violator will seek to have a destructive impact on the vulnerable areas of hazardous production facilities with the prospect of developing an emergency in scenarios with the most destructive consequences. Therefore, the application of multicriteria optimization methods to predict the development of an emergency, in particular, the method of the displaced ideal and the method of hierarchy analysis, will allow to objectively identify among possible combinations of failures the priority scenario, that a potential internal violator will strive to implement. In turn, the determination of vulnerable for committing an act of unlawful interference (through technical influence by the violator) in the production and technological process will allow the preventive use of the method of physical safety barriers to enhance technological safety. The section of the process flow diagram — isomerization reactor furnace at the organic synthesis facility is considered in the article.
The method of the displaced ideal and the full method of hierarchy analysis determine the same, the most prioritized combination for the violator.
The software implementation of this approach for determining the priority scenario for the development of an emergency will allow to develop the decision-making technology at hazardous production facilities in matters of ensuring industrial safety within the framework of the strategy for the development of artificial intelligence in industry.
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