A.A. Agapov, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Director of the Computational Analysis Center А.S. Sofyin, Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Department Head S.Kh. Zainetdinov, Junior Researcher V.V. Bannikov, Junior Researcher, firstname.lastname@example.org STC «Industrial Center» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
The current state of the foreign and native practice of the methods of quantitative risk assessment is considered, their qualitative differences are shown. Substantiation of the conducted verification is presented for the objective to confirm the adequacy of the approaches used in TOXI + Risk 5 software package.
Verification of methods is conducted with regards to the consequences assessment of the «fire ball» and the pool fire formation, which are used in Russia at calculating fire risk and accident risk by comparing the results of the calculations with the published source data from the field experiments conducted at the end of the 20th century, including: a number of experiments with the destruction of the tank containing different amount of the liquefied natural gas, accompanied by the Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) and the «Fire ball»; a number of experiments with the formation of the «Fire ball» as a result of an explosion of the explosive charge in the vessel with gasoline, kerosene and diesel fuel; a number of experiments with the pool fire of the kerosene on the surface of the water basin; a number of experiments «Phoenix» with pool fire of the liquefied natural gas on the water surface; a number of the experiments on the China Lake with the pool fire of liquefied natural gas.
Satisfactory agreement of the calculated and experimental data for practically all the experiments listed is shown.
The need is shown regarding the improvement of the methods for modeling the pool fire with regard to taking into account the spread of the pool fire along the terrain relief, as well as the possibility of specifying an arbitrary shape of the radiation surface.
To increase confidence in the methods of modeling physical processes used in the native regulatory methodological documents, when published, it is proposed to place in the open access the appropriate reports on verification of these methods, including references to primary sources of the mathematical models and the results of comparison with experimental data.
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