The method for calculating numerical risk indices is proposed, which makes it possible to carry out the comprehensive assessment and forecast of risks at the coal mines under the conditions of information uncertainty. The possibility of practical application of the chosen approach is shown on the example of the assessment of the occupational risk of the personnel injuries as a result of the baric effect of the blast wave at explosion of methane and dust at the underground workings. The proposed method is based on the model of fuzzy inference, the structure of which is determined by the results of the analysis of acts of technical investigation of accidents causes that occurred at the coal mines in 2005–2016. The advantages of using this model for calculating numerical risk indices are the possibility of taking into account the uncertainty in the structure of fuzzy numbers during the expert assessment of factors. At describing the model the fuzzy inference algorithm is used to reproduce cause-effect relationsinships in the model and calculate the output numerical risk indices. The interface of the software developed on the basis of the obtained model of fuzzy inference is presented, which makes it possible to assess the occupational risk of personnel injuries at methane and dust explosions with implementing the analysis of various scenarios for the occurrence of adverse events. The assessment is given concerning the possibility of using the results obtained in order to comply with the requirements of the current legislation for Industrial and Labour Safety Management Systems, as well as for the objectives to justify the intensity of state supervision activities. The universality of the selected approach is shown, which makes it possible to use it to assess and forecast the various occupational and industrial risks associated with the underground coal mining.
S.V. Myasnikov, Deputy Department Head Rostechnadzor G.I. Korshunov, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Head of the Department E.I. Kabanov, Candidate, firstname.lastname@example.org St. Petersburg Mining University
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