Accidental Risk Quantitative Assessment: Assessment of Parametric Sensitivity of the Models and Conservativeness of the Adopted Assumptions

E.Yu. Kolesnikov, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Assoc. Prof., Volga Region State Technological University, Yoshkar-Ola, Russia E.S. Telyakov, Dr. Sci. (Eng.), Prof. Kazan National Research Technological University, Kazan, Russia


1. Kolesnikov E.Yu. Accidental risk quantitative assessment: analysis of uncertainty. Bezopasnost Truda v Promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2018. № 2. pp. 64–70. (In Russ.).
2. CPR-12E. Methods for determining and processing probabilities (Red book). 3nd Ed. Hague: VROM, 2005. 604 p.
3. CPR-18E. Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment (Purple book). 2nd Ed. Hague: VROM, 2005. 237 p.
4. Cacuci D.G. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. Chapman & Hall, 2003. 285 p.
5. GOST R 54500.1-2011/ISO/IEC Guide 98-1: 2009 Uncertainty of measurement. Part 1: Introduction to guides on uncertainty in measurement). Available at: (accessed: January 8, 2018). (In Russ.).
6. Mathematical Encyclopedic Dictionary. Moscow: Sovetskaya entsiklopediya, 1988. 847 p. (In Russ.).
7. Stakheev M.V., Cherkasskiy G.A., Maksimova M.Z., Kononenko E.V., Vorobeva E.P. Estimation of sensitivity of the approved methods for calculating fire risks to the uncertainty (error) of the calculated characteristics. Pozharovzryvobezopasnost = Fire and Explosion Safety. 2011. Vol. 20. № 1. pp. 9–14. (In Russ.).
8. Methods for determining estimated fire risk values at production facilities. Available at: (accessed: January 8, 2018). (In Russ.).
9. Rump S.M. INTLAB — INTerval LABoratory. In Tibor Csendes. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999. pp. 77–104.
10. Sharyy S.P. Finite-dimensional interval analysis. Available at: (accessed: January 8, 2018). (In Russ.).
11. Kolesnikov E.Yu., Kolodkin V.M. On the methods of calculation of the accidental risk metrics in the presence of uncertainty. Problemy analiza riska = Problems of Risk Analysis. 2016. Vol. 13. № 5. pp. 20–34. (In Russ.).
12. Methodological Framework for Conducting Hazard Analysis and Accident Risk Assessment at Hazardous Production Facilities: Safety Guide. Ser. 27. Iss. 16. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2017. 56 p. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2018-3-63-67
Year: 2018
Issue num: March
Keywords : uncertainty quantitative risk assessment parametric sensitivity conservative estimates