Experience in Implementing a Real-time Accident Forecast System TOXI+Prognosis for the Production of Ammonia and Сarbamide


Annotation:

The article is devoted to the systems for forecasting accidents with the release of toxic and explosion and fire hazardous substances into the atmosphere in real time. The presence of forecasting systems at the production facility allows dispatcher services and other interested parties to provide the required information for making decisions on minimizing the consequences of an accident, formed taking into account current weather conditions, current data on the technological process and gas pollution detectors readings.
The TOXI+Prognosis software developed by CJSC «Scientific and technical center of industrial safety problems research» is considered as an example of such a forecasting system.
The main capabilities of this software, as well as the experience of its implementation in the dispatcher service of a hazardous production facility of URALCHEM, JSC engaged in the production of ammonia and carbamide are presented.
In the process of implementation, a terrain map was entered into TOXI+Prognosis software parameters and location of hazardous equipment, as well as gas pollution detectors, places of presence of people were specified, the list of possible accident scenarios was determined, conditions for automatic start-up of accident scenarios based on the readings of gas pollution detectors were developed, receipt and accounting for these readings, as well as data on weather conditions from the meteorological station of the enterprise were organized.
In the process of operation, TOXI+Prognosis software analyzes the readings of the pollution detectors and checks the conditions for starting the accident forecast. If these conditions are met, then the calculation is carried out: the exposure areas are determined and visualized on the terrain plan taking into account the current weather conditions based on the parameters of the exposed areas, the locations and the number of people (taking into account the current number) entering these zones are identified and sent to the dispatcher. The specified information is stored in the program and can be provided to the interested parties, including in automatic mode. The calculation can also be performed by the command of the dispatcher.
hazardous 

References:
1. Collision of Norfolk Southern Freight Train 192 With Standing Norfolk Southern Local Train P22 With Subsequent Hazardous Materials Release at Graniteville, South Carolina, January 6, 2005. Available at: https://aristatek.com/newsletter/0601January/RAR0504.pdf (accessed: May 14, 2020).
2. Pasman H. Risk Analysis and Control for Industrial Processes — Gas, Oil and Chemicals. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2015. 458 p.
3. Homberger E., Reggiani G., Sambeth J., Wipf H.K. The Seveso Accident: Its Nature, Extent and Consequences. The Annals of Occupational Hygiene. 1979. Vol. 22. Iss. 4. pp. 327–370. DOI: 10.1093/annhyg/22.4.327
4. De Grazia A. A Cloud over Bhopal: Causes, Consequences and Constructive Solutions. Princeton: Metron Publications, 1985. 145 p.
5. Burgess D.S., Zabetakis M.G. Detonation of a flammable cloud following a propane pipeline break: Technical Report. Pittsburgh: Bureau of Mines, 1973. 26 p.
6. Gonik A.A. Lessons from the ecological disaster. Energiya: ekonomika, tekhnika, ekologiya = Energy: economics, technology, ecology. 1999. № 6. pp. 19–24. (In Russ.).
7. The cause of the explosion at the Achinsk oil refinery is announced. Available at: https://rg.ru/2014/06/15/reg-sibfo/prichina-anons.html (accessed: May 14, 2020). (In Russ.).
8. On industrial safety of hazardous production facilities: Federal Law of July 21, 1997 № 116-FZ. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 56 p. (In Russ.).
9. General rules of explosion safety for explosion-and fire-hazardous chemical, petrochemical and oil refining plants: Federal rules and regulations in the field of industrial safety. Ser. 09. Iss. 37. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 130 p. (In Russ.).
10. Safety rules for production of chlorine and chlorine-containing media: Federal rules and regulations in the field of industrial safety. Ser. 09. Iss. 39. 2-e izd., ispr. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2019. 118 p. (In Russ.).
11. Safety rules for chemical hazardous production facilities: Federal rules and regulations in the feild of industrial safety. Ser. 09. Iss. 40. 3-e izd., ispr. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 76 p. (In Russ.).
12. Safety rules for ammonia refrigeration units and systems: Federal rules and regulations in the feild of industrial safety. Ser. 09. Iss. 49. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2019. 90 p. (In Russ.).
13. PB 09-579—03. Safety rules for ground-based liquid ammonia warehouses. Ser. 09. Iss. 17. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2019. 76 p. (In Russ.).
14. Agapov A.A., Khlobystova I.O., Marukhlenko A.L., Marukhlenko S.L., Sofin A.S. Hardware and Software System «TOXI+Meteo» for Estimation of Possible Accidents Consequences Considering Data about Current Meteorologic Conditions. Bezopasnost truda v promyshlennosti = Occupational Safety in Industry. 2011. № 1.  pp. 22–25. (In Russ.).
15. TOXI+Prognosis software package. Software for industrial safety TOXI+. Available at: https://toxi.ru/produkty/programmnyi-kompleks-toxiprognoz (accessed: February 27, 2020). (In Russ.).
16. Methodology for assessing the consequences of emergency explosions of fuel and air mixtures: Safety guide. Ser. 27. Iss. 15. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 44 p. (In Russ.).
17. Methodology for modeling of dispersion of hazardous substances accidental release: Safety guide. Ser. 27. Iss. 11. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 128 p. (In Russ.).
18. Methods for substantiating the explosion resistance of buildings and structures during explosions of fuel-air mixtures at hazardous production facilities: Safety guide. Ser. 27. Iss. 17. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 56 p. (In Russ.).
19. Methodological bases for conducting analysis of hazards and risk assessment of accidents at hazardous production facilities: Safety guide. Ser. 27. Iss. 8. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2016. 56 p. (In Russ.).
20. Declaration of fire safety and fire risk assessment: book of reports. Ser. 19. Iss. 2. In 4 Parts. Pt. 3. Normative documents on  fire safety. Sets of rules. 3-e izd., ispr. i dop. Moscow: ZAO NTTs PB, 2020. 450 p. (In Russ.).
21. RD 52.04.253—90. Methodology for predicting the scale of contamination with potent poisonous substances in case of accidents (destruction) at chemically hazardous facilities and transport. Available at:http://docs.cntd.ru/document/1200007358 (accessed: September 1, 2020). (In Russ.).
DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-12-66-73
Year: 2020
Issue num: December
Keywords : accident consequences assessment real-time mode dispersion of hazardous substances TOXI+ series TOXI+Prognosis software explosion of the fuel-air mixture cloud automation of dispatcher actions enterprise safety and security system
Authors:
  • Sofyin A.S.
    Sofyin A.S.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Department Head STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Agapov A.A.
    Agapov A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Director of the Computational Analysis Center, inform@safety.ru STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Buynovskiy S.A.
    Buynovskiy S.A.
    Chief Information Officer, s.buinovsky@safety.ru STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Kanygin P.S.
    Kanygin P.S.
    Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Director FBU STC energy Security, Moscow, Russia
  • Avdeev A.S.
    Avdeev A.S.
    Chief of Staff for Civil Defense and Emergency Situations PMU Branch (Russia) URALCHEM JSC (Russia), Perm, Russia