Experience in Implementing a Real-time Accident Forecast System TOXI+Prognosis for the Production of Ammonia and Сarbamide


The article is devoted to the systems for forecasting accidents with the release of toxic and explosion and fire hazardous substances into the atmosphere in real time. The presence of forecasting systems at the production facility allows dispatcher services and other interested parties to provide the required information for making decisions on minimizing the consequences of an accident, formed taking into account current weather conditions, current data on the technological process and gas pollution detectors readings.
The TOXI+Prognosis software developed by CJSC «Scientific and technical center of industrial safety problems research» is considered as an example of such a forecasting system.
The main capabilities of this software, as well as the experience of its implementation in the dispatcher service of a hazardous production facility of URALCHEM, JSC engaged in the production of ammonia and carbamide are presented.
In the process of implementation, a terrain map was entered into TOXI+Prognosis software parameters and location of hazardous equipment, as well as gas pollution detectors, places of presence of people were specified, the list of possible accident scenarios was determined, conditions for automatic start-up of accident scenarios based on the readings of gas pollution detectors were developed, receipt and accounting for these readings, as well as data on weather conditions from the meteorological station of the enterprise were organized.
In the process of operation, TOXI+Prognosis software analyzes the readings of the pollution detectors and checks the conditions for starting the accident forecast. If these conditions are met, then the calculation is carried out: the exposure areas are determined and visualized on the terrain plan taking into account the current weather conditions based on the parameters of the exposed areas, the locations and the number of people (taking into account the current number) entering these zones are identified and sent to the dispatcher. The specified information is stored in the program and can be provided to the interested parties, including in automatic mode. The calculation can also be performed by the command of the dispatcher.

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DOI: 10.24000/0409-2961-2020-12-66-73
Year: 2020
Issue num: December
Keywords : accident consequences assessment real-time mode dispersion of hazardous substances TOXI+ series TOXI+Prognosis software explosion of the fuel-air mixture cloud automation of dispatcher actions enterprise safety and security system
  • Sofyin A.S.
    Sofyin A.S.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Department Head STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Agapov A.A.
    Agapov A.A.
    Cand. Sci. (Eng.), Director of the Computational Analysis Center, inform@safety.ru STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Buynovskiy S.A.
    Buynovskiy S.A.
    Chief Information Officer, s.buinovsky@safety.ru STC «Industrial Safety» CJSC, Moscow, Russia
  • Kanygin P.S.
    Kanygin P.S.
    Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Director FBU STC energy Security, Moscow, Russia
  • Avdeev A.S.
    Avdeev A.S.
    Chief of Staff for Civil Defense and Emergency Situations PMU Branch (Russia) URALCHEM JSC (Russia), Perm, Russia